AC Milan – Season Preview 2022-23

Before the new transfer window opened, AC Milan owner, Paul Singer announced his retirement, triggering a sale of the Club. This news was somewhat of a surprise in terms of his retirement but it was not a total shock as takeover rumours had been doing the rounds for some time. Indeed if you have read the preamble on this series, a takeover was very much expected early on in this save, as it was anticipated that Singer would likely want to divest AC Milan from his investment portfolio.

Two rival consortia vied for ownership of the Milanese Club, with an Italian-led group winning out backed by the existing chairman, Paolo Scaroni. Upon news of ownership switching to Scaroni being released, he vowed to invest into the Club, putting forward an additional £42m into funds and investing into the youth training facilities. Disconcertingly, in taking over control the Club, Scaroni also stripped out all of the directors who were AC Milan through and through, including Zvonomir Boban and Franco Baresi, leaving only Paolo Maldini behind as Technical Director. This is particularly curious given Scaroni has been the chairman of the Club since 2018.

Additional to the successful takeover, bids were also made for Declan Rice and Dayot Upamecano. These were done without any involvement of the AC Milan manager or the transfer committee that had previously signed off on deals, with the new board seemingly keen to please I Rossoneri’s tifosi with some headline signatures.

The announcement of these transfer bids and subsequent negotiations were met with a degree of incredulity by AC Milan’s manager. Declan Rice was not a player he felt the side needed, with Sandro Tonali the go-to-guy for the central pivot in midfield and throughout the last season. Additionally, AC Milan had not played with a player in the defensive midfield strata, the only area where Rice is a natural. As such, this signing could risk squad imbalance and upset squad harmony as Rice could very well not play the amount of minutes he might expect according to what is promised in his contract negotiations. Combine this with a British/Irish player coming into a league where he does not speak the language nor understand the culture, this could represent a very poor investment, particularly given the size of the fees involved.

His metrics, set against players aged 27 or younger, with 1,000+ minutes across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1, are relatively underwhelming, bar his pressure adjusted tackles and interceptions – his raw figures (pre-possession adjusted) are actually very impressive, but West Ham’s 46% average possession impacted them heavily. This perhaps goes some way to explaining his passing and key passes numbers, which were well below Tonali’s, although Rice’s chances created were vastly higher. So if AC Milan are to look for someone to break play up, perhaps against stronger opposition, he could be the pick, albeit a reluctant one.

To an extent, there was more understanding toward the bid for Upamecano. The metric analysis of the squad’s performance had highlighted a potential for improvement within the central defensive partnership, with Romagnoli having to do the bulk of the work. However, at £54.75m for the overall transfer, plus signing on fee and wages, there was some doubt as to whether this is a signing that represents good value for money. When comparing Upamecano’s defensive metrics against other central defenders in the top five leagues who played more than 1,000 minutes, he comes out well in his ball playing abilities and in winning the ball in the air, at least in terms of aerial duals as a percentage. Yet his heading data also highlights that he was somewhat below average for central defenders in frequency of aerial duals. After further inspection, to rule out styles of play in the Bundesliga, Upamecano’s aerial challenges are sitting at edge of the bottom 20% – evidence he could look to compete more in the air, utilising his not insignificant strength. Nonetheless, he does look something of an upgrade on both Caldara and Mussachio.

Both deals were confirmed by the new board without any oversight from the transfer team, complete with a 5% transfer fee sell on clause to each player. Only time will tell if these new signings can mesh into the AC Milan system or whether tactical adaptations will need to be made to fit them into the starting eleven.

No high potential youth prospects had come through the AC Milan Academy over the last three years, with no youth recruits deemed anything like good enough for first team minutes, as indicated by the below graphic of player ages and minutes played across the 2021-22 season. As a consequence, the transfer committee recognised the need to focus on young players with room for growth when bringing in players to provide depth to the squad. This will help support those players who are in their peak years, giving them a rest, whilst developing new talent for the future.

Further strengthening of the central midfield was identified as a priority to provide greater squad depth in the box-to-box role, behind Bruno Guimarães. Sassuolo’s Ivorian international, Hamed Junior Traoré was the main focus. The 22-year old played 36.98 90s for relegated for I Neroverdi, and showed some reasonable promise. His total potential transfer fee of £54.75m was probably too much, especially given Sassuolo’s relegation, but for such a well-rounded young player with potential to develop his game yet further. This could be a good deal for the Club if his game was to kick on when surrounded by better quality players in a more aggressive side/system than Sassuolo – a team which managed only 29 goals (2nd lowest) from 474 shots (by comparison, AC Milan managed 69 goals from 811) and conceded 55.

The next transfer business was to sell both Rodrigo De Paul and Mateo Mussachio. With Upamecano coming in, Mussachio was now surplus to requirements, especially with twelve months left on his contract. He went to Valencia for £7.5m. Rodrigo De Paul had proved over the last two seasons that he was out of his depth at AC Milan, with a poor statistical performance. He was moved onto Napoli for £15.5m.

With just one year left on his contract, and staunchly unwilling to sign fresh deal whilst wanted by PSG, Suso, AC Milan’s Player of the Year in 2021-22, would either have to be sold to raise funds for reinvestment into the squad or leave on a free at the end of the season. Given his transfer value, it was decided it was best to cash in on his value, despite his importance to the squad. A deal was struck with PSG which netted the Club £55m upfront with a further £15m in possible bonuses.

In order to replace Suso, rather than opt for an out-and-out replacement, it was decided that Chiesa should be given the chance to switch flanks and play as a winger out on the right. As such, another left-sided player should be brought into play back-up to last year’s emerging break through talent, Adam Hložek. After some extensive scouting, with impressive reports, and with a free non-EU player slot at start of the new season, Gabriel Veron was signed on a four-year deal for his release fee of £18.5m. The 19-year old had been impressing in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A for Pamerias, with 0.5 non-penalty goals per game in the 23.59 90s played so far in the 2022 season. These metrics stack up well against all players in the same position from the aforementioned top five leagues and also the Brazilian Série A. With an outstanding 0.29 assists per 90, it is hoped that he can push Hložek for his place and make the step up to a tougher European league. If he can quickly adapt to the Italian style of living like so many Brazilian’s before him – with many having played for AC Milan including Cafu, Kaká, Ronaldinho, Dida, Robinho and the Ronaldo – he could be a star there for the next decade. Fellow countrymen, Paquetá and Guimarães should help him to adjust to life playing at the San Siro.

With a dearth of potential back-up left back options available which would allow Wöber to slot in behind Romagnoli as back up left-sided centre back, it was thought best to bring in a young central defender who could develop at the Club under the guidance and mentorship of club captain, Romagnoli. 22-year old Gabriele Corbo had long been impressing the Club scouts and analysts with his performances in the Serie A, despite his relatively young age for a centre back. His ability to read the game is reflected in the PAdj interceptions and dominance in the air is shown by his headers won per 90. His key tackle metric was similarly impressive, leading the Serie A table for this statistic, and will likely have gone some way to Bologna keeping twelve clean sheets over the previous season. If he can improve his ball retention and look to be more comfortable on the ball, there’s no reason why the Italian youth international cannot be a long-term success at the Club. He joined for a £33.5m transfer fee on a five-year deal and concluded the transfer dealings.

This final transfer tipped AC Milan’s spending, including the deals done by the directors, to £196m – the second most in Europe’s top five leagues, behind only PSG. With Serie A spending totalling £630m, AC Milan’s was 31.11% of all spending – the new directors were putting their money on the line. Time will only tell to see if these new signings deliver after the team has lost its main creative talisman in Suso.


The next blog post will reflect upon the 2022-23 season. Will AC Milan achieve a third scudetto in a row? And will a deeper squad enable the team to go further in the Champions League? More on that soon…

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